Well, it's time to try out our algorithm to see if it will work for the upcoming Texas and Ohio primaries.
If the method holds, here is what the results should look like, based on polling from the past week only (18 polls in OH, 13 in TX):
Ohio: The polls average to a Clinton win of 6 percentage points (so, Clinton 53% / Obama 47%). Given what we've seen, which is that the method is accurate only to +/- 5%, that would lead to somewhere in the range of a 1% to 11% Clinton win in Ohio.
Texas: The polls there show an average Obama victory of 1%. So given our range, that could be anywhere from a 6% Obama victory to a 4% Clinton victory.
As you'll recall, we were guessing that the polls (and my method) break down in states with larger numbers of rural minority voters, especially rural African American voters. So if that is true, the method should work for OH but perhaps not so well for Texas.
In terms of actual delegates, because of the delegate allocation system in both OH and TX (for the primary-based allocated delegates), it seems likely that the delegate count will be tied. TX also allocates some delegates through their caucuses, so Obama might come out with a lead there. There's not enough polling in VT and RI, but the conventional wisdom there is that they will split those two States, which have about the same # of delegates. So at the end of the day, maybe a slight lead in delegates for Obama from the night, which is super-bad news for Clinton. But she will likely 'win' at least two states, so maybe that's enough to keep going.
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